On the evening of May 9, 2020, IFF’s 6^th webinar took place with the theme of “Globalization in the Post-Epidemic Era”. Six speakers were invited, including Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, former secretary-general of the Academic Committee of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC); Hu Weixing, dean of Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Macau, former head of Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong; Song Min, IFF Academic Committee member, dean of Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, former head of Department of Finance, School of Economics at Peking University; Liu Ligang, chief China economist of Citi Group; Xia Le, IFF Academic Committee member, chief Asia economist of BBVA, and Xie Zuchi, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, Ltd. They explored the dynamics of globalization after the COVID-19 from the perspectives of trade, investment and industrial chain, and expressed their views on China’s political and economic relations with the US, Europe and countries along the Belt and Road. Liu Xing, chief editor of China Central Television (CCTV) programme Dialogue, presided over the webinar. Wang Yuanfeng, IFF Academic Committee member, vice chairman of Chinese Association of Development Strategy Studies and professor of Beijing Jiaotong University, made a summary and commented on the presentations.

Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, former secretary-general of the Academic Committee of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), began his presentation with Dani Rodrik’s well-known ‘globalization paradox’, and pointed out that limited regional and global governance capacity has given rise to increasing national and international injustices, thus leading to the emergence of de-globalization. The tendency of de-globalization, coinciding with the pandemic, has resulted in de-Sinicization, while the pandemic has gradually evolved from a public health crisis into political conflicts. The worst scenario triggered by de-globalization and de-Sinicization could be the decoupling of technology, rules and industry, but Zhang believed that China will continue to open up. He noted that opening-up to the outside world is the introduction of international competition mechanisms and rules, and that the essence of the policy is to motivate domestic institutional mechanisms to conduct reforms, driven by crises, challenges and confrontations. China will therefore make some adaptive adjustments, but will still insist on opening up to the outside world, because it is based on the characteristics of the Chinese culture that the policy has gained its vitality. Zhang mentioned the following three issues that need to be addressed in the next step: Deeping opening-up while adjusting to domestic conditions; balancing the relationship between opening-up and sovereignty; and ensuring food and energy security. Whether decoupling or not on the three aspects test China's response to changes in relations with major countries and the international landscape. The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, in which countries and regions should respect the common sense, the law and the logic, focus on their own paths.

Hu Weixing, dean of Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Macau, former head of Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, stated that globalization is not only an economic phenomenon, but also an international political issue. The impact of this pandemic is likely to be more profound than that of the 2008 financial crisis and September 11 Attacks. He presented several implications of the pandemic in international politics. First, the COVID-19 has a great impact on relations among major countries, especially China-US relations, which will also affect China's relations with other major countries, especially those in the west. Second, the pandemic significantly affected the post-WWII international multilateral system. Third, the tendency of de-globalization caused by the pandemic has brought about the decline of the US-centric international order and the rise of a China-centric one. Fourth, the global governance system has been significantly weakened, and regional governance systems need to be strengthened in the future.

Song Min, IFF Academic Committee member, dean of Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, former head of Department of Finance, School of Economics at Peking University, analyzed the impact of the trade war and the COVID-19 on China's trade and industry chain by presenting the economic and trade relations and imports and exports between China and the G6 countries (US, Germany, UK, Canada, Italy and France). Among them, the US and Germany are China's main import and export partners. The main imports and exports are capital goods and consumer goods. China mainly imports medium- and high-end tech products while exports low-tech products. China's exports to G6 countries are more IP-intensive, but less trademark-intensive than the world's average. In the industry terms, it was found that imports are mainly electromechanical products, transportation equipment and chemical products, and exports are mainly electromechanical products. The electromechanical industry has been greatly affected by the decline in demand in this pandemic. Due to China's lower position in the electromechanical and transportation equipment industry chain, China’s exports are mostly parts and components, and the imports are mostly core technology products. International changes will cause a shortage of key components of China’s relative industry. China's second-largest export industry is low-end and labour-intensive, with a high proportion of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are highly affected by the pandemic. Another industry suffered heavily is the global medical equipment chain. Although the domestic industry will increase its production capacity to produce medical products in the short term due to the pandemic, in the long term, western countries will consider trade issues from a security perspective. Therefore, the medical device industry may be more vulnerable to de-Sinicization and de-globalization challenges. Song Min suggested that new policies should be introduced to help SMEs overcome the difficulties, expand domestic demand to hedge against declining external demand, elevate China's position in the global industrial chain, and establish medium- and long-term plans to deal with de-globalization and de-Sinicization.
   
Liu Ligang, chief China economist of Citi Group, analyzed US-China economic and trade relations in the short and long term in the post-pandemic era. In the short term, with the overlapping of the presidential election and the pandemic, the US needs to divert pressure from the domestic environment to China, which is detrimental to the bilateral trade. The implementation of phase one of the US-China trade agreement has helped to improve US-China political relations, but China is currently relatively lagging in implementing the agreement's procurement commitments due to the pandemic. In addition, the spillover effects of the US fiscal stimulus policies will increase the US trade deficit with overseas countries, including China, further exacerbating the economic and trade conflicts between the two countries. Liu pointed out that with economic stimulus policies applied throughout the world, China can do more in this regard. China's economic stimulation will be conducive to promoting global economic development, easing China-US relations, increasing the demand for overseas products, and implementing the China-US trade agreement. In the medium to long term, China needs to maintain a relatively high rate of economic growth. If China’s GDP is almost equivalent with that of the US by 2025, de-Sinicization will be difficult and the current worrying US-China relations will improve. This year, Chia should continue to open up. Meanwhile, the RMB internationalization should be re-accelerated to prevent the domestic market from bubbling and offset export losses caused by the pandemic.

Xia Le, IFF Academic Committee member, chief Asia economist of BBVA, analyzed the EU’s development and China-Europe relations in the wake of the pandemic. There are signs that the pandemic in Europe has been contained. However, the economic shocks brought by COVID-19 has been significant in EU, though some counties are gradually resuming work and production. Thanks to the bold and effective measures taken by the ECB that improves the flexibility of national debt, serious banking or debt crisis hasn’t occurred so far. The pandemic has led to some negative perceptions of the euro, the eurozone, and the EU. European countries tend to be more assertive to their own national interest instead of the EU’s. Xia foresaw four possible scenarios for Europe. First, the leaders of the EU countries strengthen collaboration, maintain the stability of the eurozone and deepen the integration of EU. Second, the ECB will adopt various policies to maintain the integrity of the eurozone but may face political resistance. Third, the trend of leaving the EU may reemerge, but countries will not easily adopt this approach due to the large losses it may cause. Fourth, a consensus among the EU countries will be reached to use their own currencies. Xia believes that the first two scenarios have a higher probability of occurring.

There have been rumblings of disquiet over the China-Europe relations amidst the COVID-19. The first challenge is the tendency of countries to shirk their responsibilities. Second, Europe is worried about the China-US trade agreement hindering the trade between China and Europe, which needs to be resolved by deepening the China-Europe trade and investment relations. Third, Europe is worried about China taking advantage of the situation to acquire Europe’s core assets. And the fourth challenge is the transfer and de-Sinicization of the medical device industry chain. Xia Le pointed out that the focus is on finding reliable sources of supply in times of crisis and increasing the stock of medical equipment, where untapped potential for collaboration should be underlined. At the same time, there are opportunities for China to goes hand in hand with Europe in addressing climate change and safeguarding multilateralism.

Xie Zuchi, CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, noted that companies focus more on short-term operational efficiency, sales performance, and the impact of US-China relations on business, rather than de-Sinicization. For many global companies, the Chinese market is still important. Considering that the industry chain transfer is complex, coupled with these global companies’ dependence on Chinese supply chain, industry chain transfer is not likely to happen in the short period. The mainstream issue in the future is not de-Sinicization, but risk management. Businesses are concerned with diversifying risks with new means such as distribution. China has both bottlenecks and room for development in its core technologies. And in some areas, China is leading the world’s development. With the emergence of new industrial chains, there is a need for innovation to well connect global manufacturing centers, which is a huge opportunity China can seize.

Wang Yuanfeng, IFF Academic Committee member, vice chairman of Chinese Association of Development Strategy Studies, professor of Beijing Jiaotong University, made a summary and commented on the presentations. The world is currently experiencing its fourth globalization accompanied by de-globalization, which has been exacerbated by the pandemic. International governance mechanisms represented by WHO and WTO are facing great challenges. The decline of US-centric globalization and the rise of China-centric globalization may be the new trend in the future. Whether the three kinds of decoupling will occur depends on China and its relations with other major countries. In the future, China will play a greater role and have more voice in the world. De-Sinicization is not likely to occur. In the future, China and the world will be more closely connected, and the globalization will be more inclusive. The end of this epidemic marks the dawn of the fourth globalization, rather than seclusion. - We should always uphold the spirit of common destiny and tackle challenges through collaborations.